Clarity odds jump to 43% on Polymarket after unverified reports Trump agreed to ethics deal
Prediction markets for the Clarity Act saw a surge in confidence following unverified reports that Donald Trump reached an ethics agreement regarding crypto holdings. While the legislative progress remains unconfirmed by official sources, the news contributed to a broader risk-on sentiment in the crypto market.
Why it matters
The Clarity Act represents a pivotal attempt to establish a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S., potentially resolving long-standing jurisdictional disputes between the SEC and CFTC.
The market pricing whether the crypto market structure bill is signed into law in 2026 rose to about 43% on the predictons market on Monday, compared to 32% on Friday. This was its lowest level since the market started trading in January.
The jump tracked a series of reports that the final sticking point in months of negotiations had been cleared.
Democrats have not seen the bill text, a source familiar with the matter told CoinDesk, and no text has been publicly released. The White House and the offices of the senators involved had not commented.
Ethics has been the last major obstacle to the Clarity Act, which would create the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets and split oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
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