Clarity Act's odds of passing plunge as Republicans reject Democrats' counter-proposal
The probability of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 has dropped significantly as negotiations between Republicans and Democrats have stalled. Prediction markets reflect growing pessimism, with traders pushing back expected passage dates to 2027 or 2028.
Why it matters
This indicates a major setback for crypto-industry regulation in the US, highlighting the difficulty of achieving bipartisan consensus on digital asset oversight.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), one of the bill’s leading Republican negotiators, said the Democratic proposal offered little movement from positions lawmakers held before the August recess.
“Senate Democrats’ counter offer looks identical to their opening position at the start of recess,” Lummis said. “Republicans have moved substantially on every front, including agreeing to nearly all of the Tillis-Gallego ethics framework, while Democrats have not budged an inch.”
“If Democrats are serious about reaching a deal, they need to actually start negotiating instead of resubmitting the same demands and calling it progress,” she added.
Polymarket bettors now put the chance of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 at just 13% Tuesday morning, down from around 30% roughly 24 hours earlier.
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