Clarity Act odds surge on prediction markets, but crypto bill still faces long road
Prediction markets are showing increased confidence in the passage of the Clarity Act, a crypto market structure bill, as it approaches a key Senate procedural vote. Despite this optimism, analysts remain cautious due to the complex amendment process and potential lack of bipartisan support.
Why it matters
The bill represents a significant potential shift in US digital asset regulation, impacting how crypto firms operate and how political figures manage their assets.
Polymarket bettors put the chance that the Clarity Act will be signed into law this year at nearly 30% Monday morning, up from just 12% earlier in September. That’s the highest level since early August, according to the event contract’s dashboard.
On Kalshi , the market for whether the the crypto market structure bill becomes law before October 1, 2027, rose to as high as 64% overnight from 26% on Thursday, before settling back to around 53% Monday morning.
Traders put the odds of passage before July 1 at 53%, versus 30% Thursday, after the contract briefly surged to 69%. The chance of legislation becoming law before April most recently stood at at 45%, roughly double Thursday's 23%.
Also covering this story
3 other newsrooms covered this event. We read each version separately.
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