China's real estate market may be set for a turnaround, S&P says
S&P Global Ratings analysts suggest China's property market may reach a bottom by 2028, with major cities potentially recovering as early as next year. This shift is attributed to government interventions, including mortgage subsidies and stricter controls on unfinished housing projects.
Why it matters
China's real estate sector is a massive component of its economy; a stabilization would have significant implications for global financial markets and commodity demand.
BEIJING — An end is in sight for China's yearslong property market slump, S&P Global Ratings analysts said in a report distributed Thursday.
Residential real estate prices may hit a bottom in the third quarter of 2028, the report said. It added that prices in China's largest cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, will likely recover as soon as next year.
That's a big shift from February, when S&P said high levels of unsold housing kept "a property market recovery out of reach ."
What's changed since are two government policies, according to the report's author Edward Chan, a credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings.
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