Bitwise model puts bitcoin fair value at $224,000 as sovereign-default hedge

Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Bitwise model puts bitcoin fair value at $224,000 as sovereign-default hedge The figure is from a theoretical model proposed by Greg Foss in 2021 that treats bitcoin as a credit default swap on G20 sovereign bonds. By Shaurya Malwa | Edited by Stephen Alpher Updated Jun 3, 2026, 2:48 p.m. Published Jun 3, 2026, 1:26 p.m. 2 min read Make preferred on What to know : A Bitwise Europe report estimates a theoretical fair value of about $224,000 per coin, while stressing this is an illustrative figure rather than a price target. The report argues that rising sovereign stress—highlighted by record Japanese bond yields, elevated sovereign risk premia and mounting global borrowing—could bolster bitcoin’s appeal as a decentralized hedge against government debt risk. Bitwise also notes near-term headwinds, including weaker demand linked to Strategy’s STRC funding vehicle and bitcoin’s relatively subdued valuation versus richly priced U.S. large-cap tech, with bitcoin recently trading around $66,300. A monthly research report from Bitwise s European arm published this week pegs bitcoin s theoretical "fair value" at roughly $224,000 if the asset were widely adopted as portfolio insurance against G20 sovereign debt defaults.