Bitcoin’s recovery stalls just short of rescuing its last underwater cohort
Bitcoin's price movement is currently oscillating around key cost-basis levels for various investor cohorts. Analysts are monitoring these thresholds, particularly the U.S. spot ETF cost basis, to determine potential support and resistance zones.
Why it matters
Understanding these cost-basis levels helps investors gauge market sentiment and predict potential price floors or selling pressure points.
Bitcoin reached a monthly high of $87,500 in September before trading sideways and subsequently retreating below $84,000 as of Wednesday.
These yearly volume-weighted cost bases have acted as support and resistance throughout the cycle. As bitcoin approaches a cohort’s average purchase price, some investors may look to exit at breakeven, while others may add to their positions.
Bitcoin climbed to approximately $82,100 in May, matching the 2024 cohort’s average cost basis, before encountering resistance and falling back to $60,000. It eventually broke above that level in August.
The 2023 cohort’s cost basis, currently around $65,000, has provided a recurring support level. When bitcoin fell towards $60,000 in February, that cohort’s cost basis was also near that level. It broadly held as support throughout the 2026 bear market, although bitcoin briefly traded below it.
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