Bitcoin is on track to shatter a major decade-long streak as September gains surge

The fourth quarter has historically been bitcoin’s strongest, with CoinGlass data putting its average gain at roughly 77%. Bitcoin is trading at $84,000, but the macro backdrop is volatile. Bond yields are rising globally, the U.S. 10-year yield is above 5.2%, and the MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, is above 100, approaching year to date highs. Oil prices holding above $90 a barrel add to inflation concerns, while gold fell about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce.

Q4 brings two further tests for liquidity and risk appetite. Anthropic’s reported plans for a November IPO could draw investor attention and capital toward a major new equity listing, although the offering’s timing and size have not been finalized. The U.S. midterm elections in November could also add further volatility as investors assess the policy outlook.