Bitcoin appears to have decoupled from midterm cycle bottom history
Recent market data suggests that Bitcoin's price behavior has decoupled from historical midterm election cycles. While previous cycles showed significant price bottoms following election days, this year's low occurred months prior, indicating that internal market cycles may be more influential than political events.
Why it matters
Understanding whether crypto markets follow historical political patterns helps investors distinguish between election-driven volatility and fundamental market trends.
Bitcoin bottomed in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, shortly after the preceding midterms. Those lows arrived approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively.
This year, bitcoin’s lowest price so far came much earlier. Bitcoin touched $57,850 on July 1, some 125 days before the Nov. 3 election. By Oct. 22, the price had recovered to around $81,455, roughly 40% above that low.
Historical returns also reveal substantial weakness over the broader pre-election period. Bitcoin fell approximately 29% in the six months before the 2018 midterms and 37% before the 2022 vote.
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