Are the US midterms the beginning of the end of the Trump political project?
The article examines whether the 2024 US midterm elections signal a decline in Donald Trump's political influence. It notes that while Trump successfully expanded his coalition in 2024, recent polling suggests these gains are fragile as voters face economic pressures.
Why it matters
It highlights the volatility of modern US political coalitions and the potential for a shift in power during midterm cycles.
US President Donald Trump is facing a poll on his popularity with the upcoming midterm elections. ( Reuters: Jonathan Ernst )
Link copied Share Share article When Donald Trump won the 2024 US election against Kamala Harris, he pulled together a coalition of voters that don't have much history voting Republican.
Working class and lower income voters helped deliver him key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Hispanic voters helped turn the sun belt states of Arizona and Nevada red.
Research from Pew found that Trump voters were markedly more racially and ethnically diverse in 2024 (20 per cent non-white) than they were in 2020 (14 per cent) and 2016 (10 per cent).
Virtually all demographic groups swung to Trump in 2024, but a New York Times analysis concluded the biggest shifts were among young Black and Hispanic voters.
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