Analysis: Global fossil-fuel emissions set to fall in 2026 amid Hormuz crisis
Global fossil-fuel emissions are projected to fall by 0.5% in 2026, primarily due to the Hormuz crisis disrupting trade and increasing oil and gas prices. This disruption incentivizes a switch to alternatives, with increased coal demand being offset by declines in oil and gas use.
Why it matters
This analysis provides a critical forecast for global climate change efforts and energy markets, indicating how geopolitical events can unexpectedly influence emissions trends and energy transitions.
Share Global fossil-fuel emissions are set to fall by around 0.5% in 2026 amid the fallout from the Hormuz crisis, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
The US-Iran war has severely disrupted trade through the strait of Hormuz, causing a spike in oil and gas prices that continues to ripple around the global economy.
Each month of disruption – and each new flashpoint, such as in Yemen – is increasing the incentive to switch to alternatives.
Those alternatives include coal, with the latest forecasts pointing to a 1.2% rise in coal demand this year – apparently supporting media claims of a “ return to coal ” in the wake of the crisis.
Yet Carbon Brief’s analysis shows the rise in emissions associated with this increased coal use, much of which is unrelated to Hormuz, is set to be more than offset by declines for oil and gas.
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