Analysis: China’s quarterly CO2 falls 3% in largest drop since Covid
China's carbon dioxide emissions fell by 3.1% in the third quarter of 2026, marking the largest decline since the 2022 Covid lockdowns. The reduction is attributed to decreased coal and oil consumption, alongside a significant expansion in wind, solar, and nuclear power generation.
Why it matters
This trend suggests a potential shift in China's energy landscape, indicating that clean energy growth may be successfully decoupling from economic output.
China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 3.1% in the third quarter of 2026, as the Hormuz crisis continued to hit oil demand and coal use also dropped.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
This was the largest quarterly reduction since the 2022 Covid lockdowns and means that China’s CO2 emissions have now fallen by an estimated 0.5% in the year to date.
The new analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data, shows that coal use fell by 3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, while oil was down 4%.
The main drivers were a fall in power-sector coal consumption, a continued sharp reduction in transport oil consumption and slowing growth in the coal-to-chemical industry.
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