Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions fall in Q2 2026 due to plummeting oil use
China's CO2 emissions declined by 1% in the second quarter of 2026, primarily driven by a significant drop in oil consumption resulting from the Strait of Hormuz crisis. While coal-fired power generation continues to rebound, the overall trend shows a plateau in emissions since 2024.
Why it matters
The data highlights how geopolitical instability and supply chain disruptions can impact global carbon emission trends, even as China continues to expand its renewable energy capacity.
China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the second quarter of 2026, as oil consumption plummeted amid the strait of Hormuz crisis .
The country’s use of oil fell by 9% overall and by 16% for transport, after the disruptions to supply from the Gulf through the strait.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
China’s total CO2 emissions fell despite a continued rebound in coal-fired power generation.
This is the first time that reductions in oil consumption have been responsible for a fall in CO2 emissions overall – in all previous cases, coal consumption has been the main driver.
Other key findings for the second quarter of 2026 include:
The second quarter of 2026 was a busy time for China’s government planners, with numerous energy-related five-year plan documents being released.
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