AI might be the one reason we're not in a recession, top economist David Rosenberg says
Economist David Rosenberg argues that the current US economic growth is heavily reliant on AI-related capital spending. He warns that without this specific sector, the economy would likely be in a recession due to weakness in housing and manufacturing.
Why it matters
It highlights the potential fragility of the current economic expansion and the risks associated with over-concentration in AI investment.
Economist David Rosenberg called the dot-com and housing bubbles. Rosenberg Research AI is crowding out other sectors, shoring up the economy, and showing cracks, David Rosenberg says. The Rosenberg Research president said the US would likely be in a recession without the AI uplift. Rosenberg said credit markets are signaling trouble through financing costs and widening spreads. The AI boom is soaking up investor cash, staving off a recession, and showing signs of faltering, David Rosenberg says. AI is "sapping the momentum out of the rest of business capital spending," the veteran economist said during the latest episode of the "Excess Returns" podcast. Rosenberg estimated that 50% of all corporate investment is going toward AI-related items , and that segment of spending is growing around 18% annually in real terms, while capital spending in the "old economy" is declining.
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