AI 2040 and the Cult of Intelligence
The author critiques the 'hard takeoff' theory of AI, arguing that physical reality and supply chain constraints are more significant than theoretical intelligence gains. The piece suggests that machines are subject to the same ecological and physical laws as humans.
Why it matters
Challenges the prevailing 'AI doom' or 'superintelligence' narratives by grounding the discussion in hardware and logistical reality.
I used to be one of these people. I read Yudkowsky and was like, OMG recursive self improvement hard takeoff AI is coming. Then I joined the real world and actually tried to do things. At comma, we ship a hardware product of similar complexity to a cell phone, and it’s really hard. Reality has lots of finicky details. I would like to see the authors of this document try to change a bike tire. Even with a superintelligent ChatGPT, I suspect they would struggle.
Presents a skeptical, pragmatic viewpoint on AI development that counters extreme techno-optimism or pessimism.
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