After brief burst of rain, monsoon in dry phase, deficit rises to 18%

NEW DELHI: India's monsoon has weakened again after a week of good showers slashed the nationwide rainfall deficit from 40% at the end of June to 14% by July 9. The current dry phase has widened the overall nationwide shortfall to 18% on Sunday, which could increase further next week.IMD on Sunday predicted "subdued rainfall activity" over plains of north-west and west-central India, and over south Peninsular India during the next six-seven days.The dry spell could undermine last week's gain in sowing activity. All major crops still have lower sown area than at the same time last year, mainly because the monsoon core region-where farming depends heavily on seasonal rains for sowing due to limited irrigation-continues to face a large rainfall deficit.Rain predicted this week but it won’t make up monsoon deficitAs of Sunday, 15 states, including Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh reported a deficit of 20% and more (up to 73%) in the overall cumulative (June 1-July 12) monsoon rainfall.Region-wise, east and northeast India recorded a huge deficit of 37% due to weak rainfall activity in Bihar, Jharkhand and five northeastern states.Though the Met department predicted “heavy to very heavy” rainfall over north-east India, Bengal and Bihar over next 2-3 days, and “isolated heavy falls” over east Uttar Pradesh over next 4-5 days, this will not be enough to fill the gap resulting from a weak monsoon in a strong El Nino year.El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon of above-average sea-surface temperatures in central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is invariably associated with a weak monsoon and a harsher summer in India. This climatic event occurs every two to seven years.Get the latest India news and live updates. Download the TOI App.