Africa Braces for strongest El Niño since 1950 - heat, drought and floods loom
Africa is preparing for an unusually strong El Niño event, potentially the strongest since 1950, which is expected to bring extreme heat and drought to Southern Africa, and excessive rainfall and flooding to East Africa. The NOAA forecasts a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event, with severe impacts anticipated on agriculture, water supplies, public health, and electricity generation across the continent.
Why it matters
This impending El Niño poses a significant threat to food security, water resources, and human lives across Africa, particularly for vulnerable small-scale farmers, necessitating urgent preparedness and mitigation strategies.
Crops and livestock face climate-induced stress due to looming El Niño conditions. Picture: Diana Ulloa / AFP
Africa faces a season of extreme heat, drought and flooding as forecasts show an unusually strong El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean, with scientists warning of severe impacts on harvests, water supplies, public health and electricity generation.
The United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026/27.
NOAA places the probability of an event exceeding the strength of any El Niño recorded since 1950 at 69% between October and December.
For Africa, the threat will vary by region. Southern Africa is expected to face drought and extreme heat, while East Africa could experience excessive rainfall and flooding.
Dr Henno Havenga, climatologist at North‑West University, explained.
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