AFL 2026, The Run Home after Round 21
Fox Sports provides an analytical breakdown of the 2026 AFL season as it enters the final three rounds. The article uses probability-based projections to forecast which teams will secure spots in the upcoming 10-team finals series.
Why it matters
Provides fans and bettors with a data-driven outlook on the competitive landscape of Australia's premier sporting league.
AFL Every AFL finals contender’s best, worst-case scenarios explained with three games left — The Run Home Johnson's bold Pendles call | 02:34 Max Laughton from Fox Sports @maxlaughton August 3rd, 2026 7:12 am One wild night at Marvel Stadium dramatically changed the top-four race AND the battle for the final wildcard. Not bad from you, Carlton.
This is The Run Home , where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture with three rounds left and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out, ahead of the AFL’s first 10-team finals series. See our predicted final ladder below.
We’re trying to predict who makes the top 10, but it’s more complicated than just running a ladder predictor.
The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those percentages to give each team a projected win total.
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