Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029
New U.S. Census Bureau projections indicate that the number of Americans aged 65 and older will surpass the number of children under 18 by 2029. This demographic shift is occurring faster than previously estimated, with many states already reaching this milestone.
Why it matters
This demographic crossover highlights significant long-term challenges for social security, healthcare systems, and the future size of the working-age population.
Resident population. Solid = actual, dotted = Census 2023 projection (middle series). Toggle the view.
For most of recorded U.S. history, children have far outnumbered older adults. The U.S. Census Bureau now projects that this will reverse around 2029, when, for the first time, there will be more Americans aged 65 and older than children under 18.
The shift is not a forecast about a distant century. In 1950 there were almost four children for every older adult. By 2024 the two groups were about 12 million apart and closing. The latest official projection puts the crossover at the end of this decade. This page documents the convergence using the Bureau’s own counts and projections, with the full dataset available to download.
Get smarter about the news
Sign up free for a feed built around what you actually care about, Dive Deeper research on any story, and the full text of every article.
Create free accountAlready have an account? Sign in