A new CRASH Clock measures the chance of satellite collisions, and it’s ticking down fast
The 'CRASH Clock' is a new metric tracking the time until a potential collision between satellites in low-Earth orbit, which has dropped to 2.5 days as of 2026. The increase in megaconstellations and space debris is significantly raising the risk of cascading orbital collisions.
Why it matters
The rapid accumulation of orbital debris threatens the viability of satellite-based communications and navigation systems essential to modern global infrastructure.
Imagine a piece of space debris the size of a hockey puck slams into a Starlink satellite at about 10 kilometres per second. The kinetic energy is equivalent to two kilograms of TNT, or a fully-loaded semi-truck travelling at 100 kilometres an hour.
The Starlink satellite sprays out dozens of new debris pieces into an expanding cloud. Other satellites will pass by the new debris within minutes — some will need to manoeuvre to avoid yet another collision.
As corporations around the world continue to fill low-Earth orbit with megaconstellations , such collisions are increasingly likely. We have developed something called the CRASH Clock to measure this. It asks a simple question: if all satellites in orbit suddenly lost the ability to manoeuvre and control their orientation, how long would it take for two to come close enough to crash?
Get smarter about the news
Sign up free for a feed built around what you actually care about, Dive Deeper research on any story, and the full text of every article.
Create free accountAlready have an account? Sign in