80% of road travel out of Wellington wouldn't be possible after 7.5 magnitude quake - study
A new simulation study indicates that a 7.5 magnitude earthquake on the Wellington Fault would severely disrupt road infrastructure, cutting off access for a significant portion of the region for months. The research highlights the need for proactive investment in resilient transport corridors to mitigate long-term isolation.
Why it matters
Understanding infrastructure vulnerabilities is critical for disaster preparedness and urban planning in high-seismic risk zones.
A study simulating what would happen to Wellington's road network in a major earthquake has found some parts would be cut off for months.
The simulation, published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, assessed the disruption that would be caused by a 7.5 magnitude quake on the Wellington Fault.
The researchers referenced a 2011 study that estimated a 10 percent chance such an earthquake would strike in the next 100 years.
They simulated traffic using parameters like driver reaction time and jam density then applied it to a map of the North Island based on a previous study assessing the infrastructure damage caused by such an earthquake.
On the map, several key roads had been closed including multiple stretches of State Highway 1, Hutt Road, Grant Road, Curtis Street and Chaytor Street.
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