70% of yearly change in winter pollution in north India explained by western disturbances: Study
A new study suggests that 70% of the annual variation in winter air pollution in northern India is driven by the frequency of western disturbances. Researchers believe this correlation could allow for seasonal forecasting, enabling governments to prepare pollution mitigation strategies in advance.
Why it matters
Predictive modeling for air quality could significantly improve the effectiveness of emergency environmental measures in heavily polluted regions like Delhi-NCR.
About 70% of the year-to-year variation in winter air pollution across northern India may be explained by the frequency of western disturbances, possibly providing warning of unusually polluted winter months in advance, researchers said.
Western disturbances are storm systems that travel eastwards from the Mediterranean region towards South Asia by strengthening vertical ventilation and bringing precipitation that helps clear accumulated pollution, including PM2.5, from the air.
The team said winters with more frequent western disturbances tend to experience lower air pollution levels, while winters with fewer of these storms are more susceptible to persistent severe pollution.
"Currently, many of the most disruptive air-pollution measures are taken only after severe pollution is already developing," lead author Yuanyu Xie, an associate research scholar at Princeton University's School of Public and International Affairs, U.S., said.
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