34% monsoon deficit, bleak August outlook set alarm bells ringing in Kerala

As the southwest monsoon has crossed the halfway mark, Kerala is staring at a bleak season, with rainfall recording a deficit of around 34% during the first two months of the four-month monsoon season. The first two months typically account for around 65% of the total seasonal rainfall. However, by the end of July, the State had received only 853.8 mm of rainfall against the normal 1,301.7 mm for the period, a deficit of 34%.

Adding to the concern, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for Kerala in August, which typically receives an average of 445.2 mm of rainfall during a normal monsoon, followed by 271.7 mm in September. This means that only an exceptionally large surplus in August and September could offset the deficit recorded during the peak monsoon months of June and July.