3 reasons Wednesday's Fed meeting is pivotal for BTC

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET today, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Traders typically assign greater weight to FOMC meetings that come with updated economic projections and a “dot plot” of interest-rate forecasts. Today’s gathering lacks both. Yet the outcome still carries outsized importance for three reasons.

Unusual uncertainty over the outcome: Markets are still assigning roughly a 35% probability of a rate increase, CME fed funds futures show. That level of indecision is rare so close to a decision. By now, traders have usually converged on a clear expectation of a hold, hike or cut. Citadel, one of the largest hedge funds in the world, is predicting an increase. The firm argues a move would end forward guidance as a policy choice, an outcome Chair Warsh has long favored.