2024 Was Not What It Seemed
This article analyzes the 2024 U.S. presidential election, arguing that initial predictions of a permanent political realignment favoring Donald Trump were premature. It notes that while Trump saw gains among minority and young voters, those shifts have proven unstable in the two years since.
Why it matters
Understanding the durability of voter coalitions is essential for predicting future election outcomes and the stability of the two-party system.
Donald Trump’s big gains with Black, Hispanic, and young voters suggested a major shift. Less than two years later, the president has lost those new supporters.
Brendan Smialowski / AFP / Getty August 3, 2026, 6:05 PM ET Share Save This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here.
Fundamental realignments in the way Americans vote are rare, but predictions that they have occurred are not. Nearly as soon as Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidential race in November 2024, people started saying the election represented a new era. “Trump just realigned the entire political map. Democrats have ‘no easy path’ to fix it,” announced NBC News .
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